DECC lays out six possible futures for low-carbon energy
28/07/2010 by BUSINESSGREEN
By Andrew Charlesworth
In parallel with the first annual energy statement made by energy secretary Chris Huhne is parliament today, DECC has published the 2050 Pathways Analysis, which illustrates six possible energy mixes to achieve secure and affordable energy supplies in the UK while still hitting the 2050 target of reducing emissions by 80 per cent on 1990 levels.
The Pathways analysis is the government’s first comprehensive, long-term look at the UK’s energy supply and demand sectors and greenhouse gas emissions to 2050. It shows some of the energy choices and trade-offs to be made over the next 40 years.
DECC has also issued a call for evidence, inviting feedback on the analysis.
The report has been welcomed by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI), a public private partnership made up of BP, Caterpillar, EDF, E.ON, Rolls-Royce and Shell.
"Many of the technical issues identified in the scenarios align with the ETI’s technology programme, including how to create sustainable sources of bio energy, the challenges of developing more affordable large-scale carbon capture and storage facilities and establishing more cost effective offshore renewables,” said ETI chief executive Dr David Clarke.
While the energy mixes differ in each of the Pathways’ scenarios, a number of common conclusions emerge.
Ambitious per capita energy demand reduction is needed. The greater the constraints on low-carbon energy supply, the greater the reduction in demand will need to be.
A substantial level of electrification of heating, transport and industry is needed. Consequently, electricity supply may need to double, and will need to be decarbonised. That in turn means increasing the level of variable renewable generation, which increases the challenge of balancing the electricity grid with stable base-load power.
Sustainable bioenergy will be vital in sectors where electrification is unlikely to be practical, such as in long-haul freight transport and aviation and some industrial high-grade heating processes, the analysis says.
The pathways also show an ongoing need for fossil fuels in our energy mix, although how long they remain so will depend on a range of issues, not least how soon they are depleted and whether carbon capture and storage can ever be developed on a viable industrial scale.
“Fossil fuels can also have their place in a low carbon future, provided we can capture and store most of their carbon emissions,” said Chris Huhne in his statement to Parliament this morning.
As well as the six possible low-carbon routes, the documents illustrates what the world would look like were the UK to choose a path reliant on heavy fossil fuel usage.
DECC has also launched an online 2050 Pathways Calculator which allows people to explore the combinations of effort in each element of supply and demand which will meet the UK’s emission reduction targets while also ensuring secure and affordable supplies.
The 2050 Pathways Analysis call for evidence will close on 5 October 2010, and will be followed by the publication of an updated 2050 Pathways Calculator in the autumn.
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